Breaking News: Erik ten Hag’s naive argument about Manchester United’s biggest weakness has been exposed

Manchester United is giving up more shots than any other Premier League team, and this was bound to catch up to them eventually.

Crystal Palace exposed the risk involved with Manchester United giving up so many shots

Manchester United will probably equal an undesirable milestone set by the worst team in Premier League history on Sunday. When Arsenal scores their 12th goal of the match at Old Trafford, United will have given up more shots on goal than Derby County did in 2007–08, when they lost 38 games and gave up 89 goals.

Take note of the usage of when, not if, to describe Arsenal’s 12th attempt. This season, United has allowed 17.6 shots per game on average against them in the Premier League. In the last 19 games across all competitions, United has only once held opponents to fewer than 11 shots per game.

Following the loss at Crystal Palace, there was also a depressing statistic circulating: United’s 317 shots against in the Premier League since January 1 have placed them either at the top or bottom of the league table. It’s so simple to play against them.

The argument that Erik ten Hag has been relying on in recent weeks was also revealed by the loss at Selhurst Park. When Everton was asked about the missed opportunities, he said it didn’t matter because his team was giving up low-quality shots during a 2-0 loss at Old Trafford despite having 23 shots.

“We already play a lot more games and for longer periods of time. Their xG is not that high, as you can see,” he stated. “They are low-quality chances.”

On that particular day, Everton had an xG of 1.6 and no points. On Monday night, Crystal Palace had an xG of 1.5 and scored four goals. This is what you get when you start treating every game like a weekly lottery. You will eventually run out of luck. Football players who are skilled enough to compete in the Premier League will eventually begin to score goals if you give them that many shots.

It’s also important to keep in mind that the expected goals statistic is better suited for evaluating long-term trends than for usage in game-by-game analysis. It may tell the story of a specific ninety minutes, but football is a low-scoring sport that is prone to lucky breaks.

When a goalie lets a long-range shot go in the middle of his goal or is beaten at his near post from a tight angle, attempts to keep the xG down are also unsuccessful. In south London, Andre Onana had a rough night.

Despite Ten Hag’s criticism of the tactical criticism, having a deep defense, a midfield that is frequently caught ahead of the ball, and a front three that play high up the pitch simply invites the opposition to attack. The competition to see who can take the most shots against Manchester United has evolved into the Premier League’s version of a fairground tournament. After 34 games at Anfield, Liverpool does appear likely to end the season with this one trophy.

The teams that United plays in its next two games are ones that have developed a reliable goal-scoring formula. On the last day of the season, anything can happen at Brighton, and Arsenal and Newcastle will be sure to pile up the shots at Old Trafford.

Even though Ten Hag is adamant that many of these shots aren’t excellent opportunities, Palace has shown that they don’t have to be. That being said, 31% of his team’s games this season have seen them surrender three or more goals. It greatly increases the difficulty of winning football games.