Where do Newcastle United REALLY stand? Inside the Toon, three years on from Saudi takeover

ANALYSIS: The Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund acquired Newcastle United three years ago today. Here, we examine the progress made, the significant barriers, and what the future holds for a contentious ownership.

The event began with celebration, pyrotechnics, and joy at St James’ Park.This led to a cup final and the Champions League.

Then reality sets in, along with Profit and Sustainability Rules.

How has Mike Ashley’s departure at 5.35 p.m. on October 7, 2021, and new Saudi Arabia ownership affected Newcastle? Can they put together a winning team? Can they ever compete with the likes of financially powerful Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester United? Saudis have rebuilt a club that is striving, truly trying. That will enough for now. However, there is no simple remedy to Newcastle’s 70-year domestic trophy drought.

And there is no simple or certain path to the top, as many believed three years ago today.

Boss Eddie Howe stated, “There is a lot of effort going into the next part of that takeover. The next round of investment will focus on the club’s long-term growth. I believe it’s an exciting moment to be linked with Newcastle. I believe a lot will happen in the future.

“The terrible words of PSR just limit what can be done today, but I believe the future looks extremely promising beyond that era.

“Elite? We are not there yet. When it comes to revenue, wage bills, and other critical indicators of long-term and continuous performance, we aren’t there. I believe we must acknowledge where we are now and work hard to improve. We are obviously not there yet. There is no assurance that you will win anything with that investment, as we all know. However, it greatly improves your chances.

“I wouldn’t say impossible, but it has become very very difficult to achieve what they initially thought they could achieve through no fault of their own.”

On the pitch.

Take a look at the starting lineup that played for Steve Bruce the week before the coup. Javier Manquillo at left back, Matt Ritchie at right back, Isaac Hayden, and Karl Darlow, with Allain Saint Maximin up front alone.

More than £430 million was invested on new players, with around £100 million recouped. The club currently spends more than £50 million on near-ready talent. However, in the past two windows, no first-team players have been added. Four players continued to play against Everton on Saturday after the final Mike Ashely-era game against Wolves on October 2, 2021.

Because of PSR restrictions intended almost intentionally to stymie Newcastle, the new leadership has been unable to spend as much as they had planned in order to move forward.

Eddie Howe’s record as a head coach now matches Kevin Keegan’s. His performance over the last (almost) three years has seen Newcastle, despite inheriting a relegation struggle, challenge the top five in criteria such as goals scored and victories.

The direction of travel has been swift. Consistent top-seven finishes are now the basic standard. It will be more difficult to take the next step and regularly rank in the top four or five.

Off the pitch?

Commercial income increased by 50 percent to over £250 million in the most recent accounting period. New sponsorship agreements have emerged, some from Saudi corporations, but not all. They inherited a hollowed-out commercial department that was a quarter of the size of rivals but has now been reinforced.

Although progress has been made, Newcastle is still not a “global” brand club. They are not in London, where blue chip firms demand for Premier League affiliations.

Turnover is somewhat more than one-third of the teams they anticipate to compete for the league and cups. Top earners may expect to make nearly three times more at Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, or Manchester United. With a few exceptions, the league table for turnover and wage bill often translated into the real Premier League table. Newcastle are hoping to defy the financial trend until cash flows reach the tens of millions.

One relevant point is why the PIF has not allocated more of its firm portfolio to (fair value) sponsor Newcastle.

That ambition to be number one?

Was it genuine, or a fantasy, to rally fans when Mike Ashley sold out?

When the Saudis completed the transaction, it was one of their most visible advances into sports. The national prestige was considered to be at risk. They have invested billions in their own domestic league, launched LIV golf, and secured major boxing matches. and are scheduled to host the 2034 World Cup.

Is propelling Newcastle United to the top still the PIF’s primary priority? Eddie Howe maintains that they still have that goal. Yasir Al Rumayyan, the PIF and Toon chief, also stated this.

The notion is that they desire to succeed. That fantasy keeps most Toon fans satisfied. The reality has yet to play out. In the short term, winning a cup is the most likely path to success. That would be a watershed moment for a fandom that hasn’t won a domestic championship in 70 years.

Progress rating: 2 out of 5

What’s next?

The enthusiasm and naive optimism that accompanied the takeover have subsided, and it is now clear that the process will take longer than expected.

The magnitude of Saudi ambition will be proven, or not, when plans for St James’ Park’s future are announced next year. Minor rebuild? Or a new superstadium that serves as the cornerstone for a European superclub? Will the Saudis pay for it? Will the Toon be burdened with the debt?

A new training ground? I’ve long suspected that one isn’t a major priority.

What if a US investment firm came in giving the Saudis a huge return and wanted to acquire Newcastle for (at present prices) three times the £305 million they paid?

Progress rating: 2 out of 5

Have human rights and debate been silenced?

Newcastle United was a lightning rod for criticism of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record, including the imprisonment of women, minorities, and dissenters, as well as the murder of writer Jamal Khashoggi.

To be honest, too many individuals – both fans and local politicians – do not speak up firmly enough about these concerns.

Many people believe that the trade-off of having a successful team is worth the Saudi participation. Other sports have had to deal with the trade-offs caused by Saudi ownership during the previous three years. Also, consider whether this is a country on the path to transformation. It is a black and white issue, but not a black and white one.

It is a geopolitical and governmental problem that cannot be seen only through Newcastle United anymore.